Current structure predictors are not learning the physics of protein folding

<p><strong>Summary</strong></p> <p><strong>Motivation.</strong> Predicting the native state of a protein has long been considered a gateway problem for understanding protein folding. Recent advances in structural modeling driven by deep learning have achieved unprecedented success at predicting a protein’s crystal structure, but it is not clear if these models are learning the physics of how proteins dynamically fold into their equilibrium structure or are just accurate knowledge-based predictors of the final state.</p> <p><strong>Results.</strong> In this work, we compare the pathways generated by state-of-the-art protein structure prediction methods to experimental data about protein folding pathways. The methods considered were AlphaFold 2, RoseTTAFold, trRosetta, RaptorX, DMPfold, EVfold, SAINT2 and Rosetta. We find evidence that their simulated dynamics capture some information about the folding pathway, but their predictive ability is worse than a trivial classifier using sequence-agnostic features like chain length. The folding trajectories produced are also uncorrelated with experimental observables such as intermediate structures and the folding rate constant. These results suggest that recent advances in structure prediction do not yet provide an enhanced understanding of protein folding.</p> <p><strong>Availability.</strong> The data underlying this article are available in GitHub at https://github.com/oxpig/structure-vs-folding/</p>